Germany will continue to lead the PV revolution in Europe in the coming years, with 20.7 GW of new solar power capacity expected by 2024. According to the 2019 European Solar PV Market Outlook report published by analyst Wood Mackenzie Power and Renewables, Spain's booming private PPA market will be close behind Germany with 19.7 GW of new solar capacity. France, the Netherlands and Italy will add 17 GW, 12.9 GW and 11.7 GW of solar capacity respectively over the next five years, according to the report.
WoodMac expects new solar capacity in Europe to double within three years to about 20 gigawatts per year and surpass the 250 gigawatts mark in 2024. As reverse auction tenders replace feed-in tariffs as a method of purchasing new capacity, electricity prices are expected to decrease along with peak electricity prices due to the popularity of PV. Tom Heggarty, an analyst at WoodMac, warns of price cannibalisation by 2040 as 170 gigawatts or more of natural gas, coal and nuclear capacity is replaced by renewables.
Price drop
"In developed European electricity markets, we are already seeing prices likely to fall below €30 / MWH, quickly falling to zero as renewables penetration rises by around 50 per cent," the analyst said.
In a press release, WoodMac said it procured 24 gigawatts of new PV capacity last year, with an additional 47 gigawatts expected to come online in more than a dozen European markets.
After Germany and Spain, WoodMac predicts that 18 more will exceed 1 GW by 2024. According to the analysts' forecasts, self-use distributed generation will play a crucial role in the European solar industry, accounting for nearly 40% of new capacity added across the continent over the next five years - with the exception of Spain, where the majority of new project capacity is in the utility category.
